Forecasting socio-economic development of the municipality

• O.A. Sokolova

  O. A. Sokolova Vologda Research Center of RAS Vologda, Russia

Abstract. The management of the development of the municipality requires the solution of many socio-economic problems, an important role in solving which is played by the formation of a forecast for various time periods. The essence of this process is reduced to the analysis and assessment of the current state of the territory for making scientifically sound management decisions. Since the local budget is formed on the basis of the calculated forecast values, the problem of improving the accuracy of the data obtained is particularly acute. The purpose of this study is to forecast the indicators of social and economic development of a municipality for a long-term period (until 2030) within the
framework of three different scenarios: conservative, basic and target. The information base was the works of Russian and foreign scientists, as well as Rosstat data. The novelty of the research lies in the disclosure of modern laws of the processes of socio-economic development of the studied territory and the determination of their state for the long term. The paper considers the existing forecasting methods, analyzes the retrospective and current situation, examines the mutual influence of indicators, on the basis of which a conceptual scheme of indicators of the municipality was built. The mathematical formalization of the model is given on the example of the formation of demographic processes,
its quality is assessed using the Fisher criterion and the coefficient of determination. The approbation of the presented model was carried out, which made it possible to obtain a quantitative fore-cast of the parameters of the development of the city of Vologda for the long term according to three different sce-narios. The basic development option seems to be the most likely, since it is based on the preservation of the development trends that had developed by the beginning of the period under review in terms of the main socio-economic indicators. The research materials can be used by regional and municipal authorities, as well as be of practical interest to researchers dealing with
this issue.